Max Hassel & Laura Lahee
February 7, 2024
A matchup between former president Donald J. Trump and incumbent president Joeseph R. Biden has been anticipated for a few years now. With the rematch all but formalized, voters need not fret about every headline along the campaign trail. Political campaigns will last up until Election Day, but the only civic duties that remain are to register to vote and visit a local polling place on the 5th of November.
A rematch between our two aging presidential candidates is primed for November 2024, but this new election cycle has brought a new passion to the Make America Great Again movement, making predictions for Election Day all the more volatile. With the Republican primaries and the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses concluded, a growing number of former Republican candidates are now found standing behind Trump at rallies straining to smile next to their former opponents. Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Chris Christy, and Ron DeSantis have all suspended their campaigns in favor of Trump’s third electoral bid. With an 11-point percentage loss in the New Hampshire primary to Trump, Nikki Haley is expected to soon join the group of solemn suspended campaigners; however, she remains as the second highest polling Republican candidate behind Trump.
Biden also has a commanding lead in the Democratic party, but the New Hampshire primary revealed a leading secondary choice to the incumbent president: former businessman and Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips. Voicing concerns about Biden’s leadership capacity at his age, strength in foreign affairs, and capability to win the 2024 general election bid against Trump, Phillips calls for a new generation matchup between Nikki Haley and himself. Though Biden was not listed on the primary ballot, and only as a write-in candidate, he won New Hampshire by 44 percentage points over Phillips, or 55 thousand votes. The next closest candidate is Marianne Williamson, writer, California politician, 2020 presidential candidate, and current spiritual advisor for Oprah, who polled at 4 percent.
According to an AP-NORC poll performed in August of 2023, more than half (51%) of Americans say Trump, is too old for another presidential term in 2024. That same poll found that over three-quarters (77%) say Biden is too old to hold office, including Democrats and Republicans alike.
Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House Press Secretary refutes raising doubts about President Biden’s legislative ability saying, “wages are rising, and inflation is falling… [while new policy is] lowering costs for families — from healthcare and prescription drugs to utility bills.” Jean-Pierre also stated that “the heart of President Biden’s strategy [is] to grow the economy from the middle out and the bottom up,” and that economists and White House officials are “seeing consumer sentiment rise as more Americans feel the results of President Biden’s economic plan.”
A New York Times – Sienna poll published in November of 2023 found that 71% of Black voters in six battleground states, including Pennsylvania (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI) would vote for Biden in the upcoming 2024 election, while 22% of Black voters in such states would vote for Trump if the election were held when the poll was conducted. In the 2020 election, 8% of Black voters elected Trump, and in 2016, only 6%. In a recent Washington Post article, journalist Michael Brice-Saddler interviewed Theodore Johnson, an author, and scholar on African American political behavior, who pointed out that “civil rights measures often resonate less with Black men, who may view economic prosperity as a more realistic way to get ahead.” On paper, the economy and markets are improving, yet the real wages for everyday Americans are stagnant while prices of goods and interest rates continue to steadily rise. The average Philadelphian has not noticed any “soft-landing” in interest rates or increase in pay despite the incessant coverage on large news media like CNN and the Wall Street Journal.
An ever-increasing number of Americans receive their political news from cable shows rather than local and network news broadcasts. Cable for today’s youngest generation is an outdated mode of television viewing. According to Forbes, Greg Gutfeld’s show “Gutfeld!” is the most viewed late night talk show in America. Stephen Colbert on CBS, Jimmy Fallon on NBC, and Jimmy Kimmel on ABC all trail in viewership behind Gutfeld on Fox News Channel’s late night talk show. However, Fox posts shorter videos on YouTube, hoping to reach non-cable-viewing news listeners. Most of the monologue segments are titled “This Will Make You Angry,” “This May Be Hard to Hear,” and other similar headers using provocative language.
Fox News is the United States’ leading news network, housing the largest Primetime viewing audience among mainstream cable news networks and has a monopolistic stranglehold on the emotions of older white Republicans and conservatives. According to a study performed by the Pew Research Center in 2019, prior to the insurrection at the capitol, over 60% of Fox’s audience was 50 years old or older and over 85% of Fox’s audience was white. Following the insurrection, we can safely assume these statistics have only grown older and whiter.
Based on polling data from the Des Moines Register poll during the Iowa caucus, “[of] Republican caucus-goers 61% say that it doesn’t matter… if former President Donald Trump is convicted of a crime before the general election,” 19% even stating “they’d be more likely to support Trump if convicted.”
Upon taking office, the Biden administration proposed new infrastructure and job creation programs under what would be called the Build Back Better plan. This plan was proposed to create new jobs in renewable energy fields, expanding upon preexisting American infrastructure, as well as addressing key American issues like inflation. During the Biden administration’s first three years in office, over 14 million total jobs have been created coming in stark contrast with the 176,000 jobs created a month during Trump’s first three years in office.
Volatility, especially in the White House and executive branches of the government, can cause chaos in private sector markets. When Biden assumed office in 2021, the stock market was meagerly recovering from the pandemic. Now, amid two ongoing wars abroad and many lingering fears of another recession, the stock market continues to improve, continuously setting intraday and closing all-time highs on January 30, 2024, and again on February 2, 2024.
Biden’s temperament, compromising to pass bipartisan legislation and urging countries towards peace diplomatically, is a stark juxtaposition to Trump’s polarizing volatility and rapid executive orders (i.e. EO 13765, repealing Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; EO 13769, known best as the “Muslim ban;” EO 13788, “Buy American and Hire American” placing limitations on importation and immigrant work). Democracy tends to change slowly, especially when in comparison with fascism. Under President Biden, the White House Administration has delegated responsibility and been more transparent than the preceding term.
A Monmouth poll in December of 2023 estimated that “public opinion of Biden’s overall job performance currently stands at 34% approve and 61% disapprove,” a lower estimated approval rating than Trump’s after the January 6th insurrection. Biden’s popularity among democrats has weakened as the administration continues to show unwavering support for Israel amidst its International Court of Justice hearing deeming it plausible that Israel is facilitating Genocide in Gaza. The U.S. is determined to aid Israel using U.S. taxpayer dollars to fuel war abroad. A recent Iranian drone attack on a military base in Jordan near the Syrian border left 3 U.S. soldiers dead and over 40 others injured. The U.S. military is coordinating counterattacks on Iranian-backed Houthi rebel groups that are considered responsible for the initial attack on the base, but President Biden says the U.S. is avoiding entering a war “a wider war in the Middle East.” Many voters feel this is the result of a weak president and a white house administration that has no control over the ongoing atrocities in the Middle East.
In a conversation with Jeremy Schmeltzer, a current full-time student at Community College of Philadelphia, he said he probably will not vote this upcoming November because choosing between Trump and Biden for the second consecutive election “feels like choosing between the lesser of two evils.” According to Schmeltzer, while Trump, out of office, incited a riot and stole federal documents, Biden, in office, has not helped the student debt crisis, supported many of Israel’s war crimes on Gazans, and failed to follow through on other promises. Though he does not want Biden for a second term, he would prefer him to the opposition: “The man we had as president shouldn’t be there… he’s immature.”
Another full-time student at CCP says he will be casting his first ballot this November and plans on voting for Trump. He said on his choice, “I lived through both Biden and Trump; America and I prefer Trump.”
